TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling and Reviewing Analysis of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Algeria with Diagnostic Shadow
AU - Jia , Jiwei
AU - Liu , Siyu
AU - Liu , Yawen
AU - Shan , Ruitong
AU - Zennir , Khaled
AU - Zhang , Ran
JO - CSIAM Transactions on Applied Mathematics
VL - 4
SP - 792
EP - 809
PY - 2022
DA - 2022/11
SN - 3
DO - http://doi.org/10.4208/csiam-am.SO-2021-0019
UR - https://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/csiam-am/21156.html
KW - COVID-19, Algeria, diagnostic shadow, medical resource.
AB - <p style="text-align: justify;">In this paper, we formulate a special epidemic dynamic model to describe
the transmission of COVID-19 in Algeria. We derive the threshold parameter control reproduction number $(\mathcal{R}^0_c),$ and present the effective control reproduction number $(\mathcal{R}_c(t))$ as a real-time index for evaluating the epidemic under different control strategies. Due to the limitation of the reported data, we redefine the number of accumulative confirmed cases with diagnostic shadow and then use the processed data to do
the optimal numerical simulations. According to the control measures, we divide the
whole research period into six stages. And then the corresponding medical resource
estimations and the average effective control reproduction numbers for each stage are
given. Meanwhile, we use the parameter values which are obtained from the optimal
numerical simulations to forecast the whole epidemic tendency under different control
strategies.</p>