Year: 2022
Author: Jiwei Jia, Siyu Liu, Yawen Liu, Ruitong Shan, Khaled Zennir, Ran Zhang
CSIAM Transactions on Applied Mathematics, Vol. 3 (2022), Iss. 4 : pp. 792–809
Abstract
In this paper, we formulate a special epidemic dynamic model to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in Algeria. We derive the threshold parameter control reproduction number $(\mathcal{R}^0_c),$ and present the effective control reproduction number $(\mathcal{R}_c(t))$ as a real-time index for evaluating the epidemic under different control strategies. Due to the limitation of the reported data, we redefine the number of accumulative confirmed cases with diagnostic shadow and then use the processed data to do the optimal numerical simulations. According to the control measures, we divide the whole research period into six stages. And then the corresponding medical resource estimations and the average effective control reproduction numbers for each stage are given. Meanwhile, we use the parameter values which are obtained from the optimal numerical simulations to forecast the whole epidemic tendency under different control strategies.
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Journal Article Details
Publisher Name: Global Science Press
Language: English
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4208/csiam-am.SO-2021-0019
CSIAM Transactions on Applied Mathematics, Vol. 3 (2022), Iss. 4 : pp. 792–809
Published online: 2022-01
AMS Subject Headings: Global Science Press
Copyright: COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press
Pages: 18
Keywords: COVID-19 Algeria diagnostic shadow medical resource.
Author Details
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