The Drivers and Forecasting of Summer Precipitation over the Yangtze-Huai River Basin Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection
Year: 2021
Author: Aihaiti Ailiyaer, Lianhua Zhu, Yiyi Yao, Weihao Zhao, Fanran Xu
Journal of Information and Computing Science, Vol. 16 (2021), Iss. 1 : pp. 77–80
Abstract
In this paper, the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to extract the leading modes of summer precipitation from 1951 to 2010 over the Yangtze-Huai River Basin. To analyze the time period of precipitation, the spectrum analysis is performed on the time series of EOT modes. Furthermore, the correlation analysis is used to discuss their drivers, and the major drivers are introduced to construct the forecasting model of summer precipitation. Results show that, the first three leading EOTs can explain about 63% variability of precipitation. The inter-annual, nearly decadal and decadal period signals of the EOT time series (T1-T3) are most significant, respectively. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), East Asia/Pacific pattern (EAP), Nino3.4 and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices are correlated with T1; the Nino3.4, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and SAM indices are correlated with T2, and Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) is correlated with T3. The forecasting model can well capture the main characteristic of summer precipitation.
Journal Article Details
Publisher Name: Global Science Press
Language: English
DOI: https://doi.org/2024-JICS-22382
Journal of Information and Computing Science, Vol. 16 (2021), Iss. 1 : pp. 77–80
Published online: 2021-01
AMS Subject Headings:
Copyright: COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press
Pages: 4
Keywords: EOT Summer precipitation EASM EAP Nino3.4 IOD NAM SAM.
Author Details
Aihaiti Ailiyaer Email
Lianhua Zhu Email
Yiyi Yao Email
Weihao Zhao Email
Fanran Xu Email