Dynamics of a Deterministic and Stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered Epidemic Model

Year:    2023

Author:    Xinghao Wang, Liang Zhang, Jiajun Guo

Journal of Nonlinear Modeling and Analysis, Vol. 5 (2023), Iss. 1 : pp. 24–53

Abstract

We investigate a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with asymptomatic infective individuals. First, we formulate a deterministic model, and give the basic reproduction number $R_0.$ We show that the disease is persistent, if $R_0 > 1,$ and it is extinct, if $R_0 < 1.$ Then, we formulate a stochastic version of the deterministic model. By constructing suitable stochastic Lyapunov functions, we establish sufficient criteria for the extinction and the existence of ergodic stationary distribution to the model. As a case, we study the COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan, China, and perform some sensitivity analysis. Our numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the analytic results.

Journal Article Details

Publisher Name:    Global Science Press

Language:    English

DOI:    https://doi.org/10.12150/jnma.2023.24

Journal of Nonlinear Modeling and Analysis, Vol. 5 (2023), Iss. 1 : pp. 24–53

Published online:    2023-01

AMS Subject Headings:   

Copyright:    COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press

Pages:    30

Keywords:    Asymptomatic infective individual Extinction Persistence Stationary distribution.

Author Details

Xinghao Wang

Liang Zhang

Jiajun Guo